How Accurate Are Our Predictions?
JerseyTrainTracker predicts NJ Transit's track assignment before it's officially announced. Below is a live scorecard for our current prediction model, scored against the actual track NJT eventually announced. The sample includes both alerts that surfaced to subscribers and silent "shadow" predictions used to calibrate the model.
(2136/4792 predictions)
By prediction tier
The model assigns each prediction a tier based on how strong the historical signal is. Tier A is reserved for trains with the most consistent platform pattern; Tier C is for trains that regularly use one of two platforms.
| Tier | Predictions | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| Below tier (shadow only) | 2770 | 29% |
| Tier A (platform) | 13 | 46% |
| Tier B | 631 | 50% |
| Tier C (bimodal) | 1378 | 73% |
Recent predictions
Last 100 resolved predictions, most recent first. Alert = surfaced to a subscriber; Shadow = observed silently for calibration.
| When | Train | Destination | Predicted | Actual | Type | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13, 8:51 PM | 6299 | MSU | 1/2 | 4 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 8:48 PM | 3297 | Long Branch-BH | 3/4 | 1 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 8:42 PM | 3895 | Trenton | 9/10 | 4 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 8:38 PM | 6679 | Dover | 1/2 | 2 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 8:36 PM | 5197 | High Bridge | 11/12 | 3 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 8:33 PM | 3737 | Jersey Avenue | 3/4 | 6 | Alert | ✗ |
| 8/13, 8:33 PM | 3893 | Trenton | 7/8 | 7 | Alert | ✓ |
| 8/13, 8:33 PM | 6671 | Dover | 11/12 | 3 | Alert | ✗ |
| 8/13, 8:33 PM | 3889 | Trenton | 3/4 | 4 | Alert | ✓ |
| 8/13, 8:33 PM | 5155 | Raritan | 1/2 or 7/8 | 3 | Alert | ✗ |
| 8/13, 8:31 PM | 6297 | MSU | 9/10 | 1 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 8:18 PM | 3893 | Trenton | 7/8 | 7 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 8:09 PM | 3293 | Long Branch-BH | 1/2 | 9 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 8:06 PM | 6677 | Dover | 3/4 | 4 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 8:04 PM | 3979 | Trenton | 11/12 | 9 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 8:04 PM | 3737 | Jersey Avenue | 3/4 | 6 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 7:43 PM | 6675 | Dover | 7/8 | 10 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 7:38 PM | 5155 | Raritan | 1/2 or 7/8 | 3 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 7:33 PM | 3889 | Trenton | 3/4 | 4 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 7:26 PM | 6295 | MSU | 11/12 | 2 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 7:20 PM | 3289 | Long Branch | 1/2 | 1 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 7:19 PM | 3887 | Trenton | 13/14 | 7 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 7:03 PM | 6671 | Dover | 11/12 | 3 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 7:02 PM | 5193 | High Bridge | 1/2 | 2 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 7:00 PM | 3285 | Long Branch | 3/4 | 4 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 6:59 PM | 3885 | Trenton | 7/8 | 8 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 6:51 PM | 6293 | MSU | 1/2 | 1 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 6:42 PM | 3969 | Trenton | 3/4 | 3 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 6:38 PM | 3883 | Trenton | 9/10 | 4 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 6:36 PM | 6667 | Dover | 1/2 or 3/4 | 2 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 6:30 PM | 3283 | Long Branch | 1/2 | 1 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 6:21 PM | 3965 | Trenton | 3/4 | 9 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 6:18 PM | 6291 | MSU | 3/4 | 3 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 6:15 PM | 3735 | Jersey Avenue | 3/4 | 2 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 6:13 PM | 6663 | Dover | 1/2 | 4 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 6:10 PM | 3879 | Trenton | 1/2 | 1 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 6:06 PM | 6363 | Summit | 1/2 | 3 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 6:02 PM | 3279 | Long Branch | 3/4 | 9 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 5:57 PM | 3877 | Trenton | 1/2 | 10 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 5:52 PM | 6659 | Dover | 3/4 | 2 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 5:51 PM | 6359 | Summit | 3/4 | 4 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 5:48 PM | 3875 | Trenton | 1/2 | 1 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 5:41 PM | 6283 | MSU | 7/8 | 3 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 5:39 PM | 3961 | Trenton | 9/10 | 10 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 5:35 PM | 3275 | Long Branch | 1/2 | 8 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 5:33 PM | 3515 | So. Amboy | 9/10 | 2 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 5:25 PM | 6655 | Dover | 3/4 | 4 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 5:21 PM | 3873 | Trenton | 11/12 | 7 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 5:18 PM | 6279 | MSU | 1/2 | 3 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 5:16 PM | 3957 | Trenton | 1/2 or 3/4 | 1 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 5:11 PM | 6437 | Gladstone | 9/10 | 6 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 5:06 PM | 3373 | Bay Head | 11/12 | 8 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 5:06 PM | 3271 | Long Branch | 7/8 | 10 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 5:03 PM | 6653 | Dover | 3/4 | 5 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 5:02 PM | 3871 | Trenton | 11/12 | 13 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 4:51 PM | 6651 | Dover | 3/4 | 2 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 4:47 PM | 3727 | Jersey Ave | 9/10 | 9 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 4:43 PM | 3953 | Trenton | 1/2 | 1 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 4:39 PM | 6351 | Summit | 1/2 | 8 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 4:34 PM | 3267 | Long Branch-BH | 11/12 | 4 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 4:31 PM | 6273 | MSU | 13/14 | 10 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 4:24 PM | 3513 | South Amboy | 7/8 | 3 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 4:20 PM | 3867 | Trenton | 11/12 | 11 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 4:18 PM | 3951 | Trenton | 9/10 | 6 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 4:14 PM | 6431 | Gladstone | 1/2 | 9 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 4:13 PM | 6647 | Dover | 3/4 | 2 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 4:13 PM | 3265 | Long Branch | 1/2 | 3 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 4:08 PM | 3725 | Jersey Avenue | 13/14 | 5 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 4:04 PM | 3511 | South Amboy | 1/2 or 3/4 | 8 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 3:48 PM | 3949 | Trenton | 1/2 | 1 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 3:45 PM | 3363 | Bay Head | 13/14 | 11 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 3:37 PM | 6263 | MSU | 11/12 or 7/8 | 12 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 3:31 PM | 3165 | Jersey Avenue | 9/10 | 13 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 3:27 PM | 6643 | Dover | 11/12 | 4 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 3:23 PM | 6343 | Summit | 9/10 | 7 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 3:20 PM | 3947 | Trenton | 3/4 | 2 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 3:08 PM | 3861 | Trenton | 11/12 | 9 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 3:06 PM | 3361 | Bay Head | 9/10 | 10 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 2:52 PM | 3723 | Jersey Avenue | 11/12 | 12 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 2:48 PM | 3943 | Trenton | 3/4 | 9 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 2:45 PM | 6641 | Dover | 1/2 | 1 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 2:41 PM | 6341 | Summit | 1/2 | 4 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 2:19 PM | 3721 | Jersey Avenue | 13/14 | 13 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 2:16 PM | 6253 | MSU | 3/4 | 2 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 2:12 PM | 3255 | Long Branch | 15/16 | 15 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 2:08 PM | 3857 | Trenton | 3/4 | 1 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 2:03 PM | 3855 | Trenton | 13/14 | 14 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 2:01 PM | 6639 | Dover | 1/2 | 3 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 1:52 PM | 6339 | Summit | 1/2 | 4 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 1:43 PM | 3509 | South Amboy | 3/4 | 2 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 1:33 PM | 3753 | Jersey Avenue | 3/4 | 1 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 1:11 PM | 3937 | Trenton | 9/10 | 8 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 1:06 PM | 6251 | MSU | 11/12 | 3 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 12:55 PM | 3251 | Long Branch-BH | 9/10 | 7 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 12:47 PM | 5179 | High Bridge | 1/2 | 2 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 12:44 PM | 6635 | Dover | 3/4 | 1 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 12:36 PM | 3719 | Jersey Avenue | 3/4 | 3 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 8/13, 12:05 PM | 3849 | Trenton | 3/4 | 7 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 11:56 AM | 6631 | Dover | 7/8 | 10 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 8/13, 11:47 AM | 3247 | Long Branch | 1/2 | 2 | Shadow | ✓ |
"Tier A (platform)" means we predicted the correct two-track platform (e.g. 11/12) — getting the user to the right area of the station. "Tier A (exact)" means we pinned a single track — only reported when GPS data corroborates the historical pattern.