How Accurate Are Our Predictions?
JerseyTrainTracker predicts NJ Transit's track assignment before it's officially announced. Below is a live scorecard for our current prediction model, scored against the track NJT eventually announced. The headline counts only predictions confident enough that we would text them to a subscriber; lower-confidence "shadow" guesses we log for calibration are reported separately below.
(183/298)
(1/5)
By prediction tier
Each prediction gets a tier based on how strong the historical signal is. A prediction counts as correct when the announced track is one of the tracks we named, so a two-platform Tier C guess covers four tracks, while Tier A names exactly one.
Alert-grade predictions
| Tier | Predictions | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| Tier A: exact track | 2 | 50% * |
| Tier B widened: two platforms | 5 | 100% * |
| Tier B: one platform | 23 | 52% |
| Tier C: two platforms | 226 | 67% |
| Tier C narrowed: one platform | 42 | 31% |
Shadow predictions (calibration only, never sent)
Shadow predictions run on every train on the board, including trains too uncertain to alert on, so most overlap with the alert-grade rows above. Overall: 41% (1124/2732).
| Tier | Predictions | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| Tier A: exact track | 4 | 25% * |
| Tier B: one platform | 101 | 54% |
| Tier C: two platforms | 663 | 69% |
| Tier C narrowed: one platform | 76 | 17% |
| Below tier: best guess | 1888 | 32% |
* Fewer than 20 predictions; too few to judge.
Recent predictions
Last 100 resolved predictions, most recent first. Alert-grade = confident enough to text a subscriber; Shadow = observed silently for calibration.
| When | Train | Destination | Predicted | Actual | Type | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/1, 8:10 PM | 3969 | Trenton | 3/4 or 1/2 | 4 | Alert-grade | ✓ |
| 10/1, 8:10 PM | 3885 | Trenton | 1/2 or 3/4 | 1 | Alert-grade | ✓ |
| 10/1, 8:10 PM | 3285 | Long Branch | 3/4 or 1/2 | 4 | Alert-grade | ✓ |
| 10/1, 8:10 PM | 5193 | High Bridge | 1/2 or 3/4 | 9 | Alert-grade | ✗ |
| 10/1, 8:10 PM | 6671 | Dover | 3/4 or 1/2 | 2 | Alert-grade | ✓ |
| 10/1, 8:10 PM | 3289 | Long Branch | 1/2 or 3/4 | 1 | Alert-grade | ✓ |
| 10/1, 8:10 PM | 6295 | MSU | 1/2 or 3/4 | 4 | Alert-grade | ✓ |
| 10/1, 7:33 PM | 3889 | Trenton | 3/4 | 3 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 7:27 PM | 6295 | MSU | 1/2 or 3/4 | 4 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 7:21 PM | 3289 | Long Branch | 1/2 or 3/4 | 1 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 7:19 PM | 3887 | Trenton | 13/14 | 13 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 7:07 PM | 6671 | Dover | 3/4 or 1/2 | 2 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 7:04 PM | 5193 | High Bridge | 1/2 or 3/4 | 9 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 7:02 PM | 3285 | Long Branch | 3/4 or 1/2 | 4 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 6:57 PM | 3885 | Trenton | 1/2 or 3/4 | 1 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 6:52 PM | 6293 | MSU | 3/4 | 3 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 6:47 PM | 3969 | Trenton | 3/4 or 1/2 | 4 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 6:42 PM | 3883 | Trenton | 1/2 | 2 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 6:39 PM | 6667 | Dover | 1/2 or 3/4 | 4 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 6:38 PM | 3283 | Long Branch | 1/2 | 1 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 6:31 PM | 3965 | Trenton | 3/4 or 1/2 | 8 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 6:23 PM | 6291 | MSU | 3/4 or 1/2 | 13 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 6:20 PM | 3735 | Jersey Avenue | 1/2 or 3/4 | 2 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 6:17 PM | 6663 | Dover | 11/12 | 3 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 6:14 PM | 3879 | Trenton | 11/12 | 4 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 6:13 PM | 6363 | Summit | 13/14 | 1 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 6:09 PM | 3963 | Trenton | 9/10 | 2 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 6:09 PM | 3279 | Long Branch | 3/4 or 1/2 | 3 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 6:02 PM | 3877 | Trenton | 1/2 or 3/4 | 13 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 5:56 PM | 6659 | Dover | 1/2 or 3/4 | 9 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 5:54 PM | 6359 | Summit | 1/2 or 3/4 | 4 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 5:53 PM | 3875 | Trenton | 7/8 | 7 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 5:46 PM | 6283 | MSU | 11/12 | 1 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 5:43 PM | 3961 | Trenton | 3/4 | 6 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 5:41 PM | 3515 | South Amboy | 9/10 | 2 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 5:39 PM | 3275 | Long Branch | 9/10 or 1/2 | 3 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 5:34 PM | 6655 | Dover | 13/14 or 9/10 | 13 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 5:25 PM | 6355 | Summit | 3/4 | 4 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 5:20 PM | 3873 | Trenton | 11/12 | 14 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 5:18 PM | 6279 | MSU | 1/2 or 3/4 | 1 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 5:15 PM | 3957 | Trenton | 3/4 or 1/2 | 9 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 5:11 PM | 6437 | Gladstone | 3/4 | 7 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 5:05 PM | 3271 | Long Branch | 1/2 | 6 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 5:05 PM | 3373 | Bay Head | 13/14 | 12 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 5:03 PM | 6653 | Dover | 1/2 or 3/4 | 3 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 5:01 PM | 3871 | Trenton | 9/10 | 13 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 4:50 PM | 6651 | Dover | 1/2 or 3/4 | 2 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 4:47 PM | 3127 | Jersey Avenue | 7/8 | 14 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 4:44 PM | 3953 | Trenton | 1/2 | 9 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 4:35 PM | 6351 | Summit | 3/4 | 4 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 4:34 PM | 6273 | MSU | 1/2 or 3/4 | 1 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 4:34 PM | 3267 | Long Branch | 3/4 | 8 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 4:28 PM | 3513 | South Amboy | 11/12 | 12 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 4:23 PM | 3867 | Trenton | 1/2 | 7 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 4:20 PM | 3951 | Trenton | 13/14 or 9/10 | 14 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 4:17 PM | 6431 | Gladstone | 9/10 | 3 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 4:16 PM | 3265 | Long Branch | 1/2 or 3/4 | 2 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 4:16 PM | 6647 | Dover | 3/4 | 12 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 4:08 PM | 3725 | Jersey Avenue | 13/14 | 15 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 4:07 PM | 3511 | South Amboy | 3/4 or 1/2 | 1 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 4:03 PM | 3949 | Trenton | 3/4 | 7 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 3:55 PM | 3363 | Bay Head | 13/14 or 15/16 | 10 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 3:45 PM | 3165 | Jersey Avenue | 1/2 | 13 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 3:45 PM | 6263 | MSU | 13/14 or 11/12 | 12 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 3:40 PM | 6643 | Dover | 1/2 | 4 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 3:37 PM | 6343 | Summit | 9/10 or 3/4 | 14 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 3:29 PM | 3947 | Trenton | 1/2 or 3/4 | 3 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 3:25 PM | 3861 | Trenton | 13/14 or 11/12 | 10 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 3:23 PM | 3361 | Bay Head | 13/14 or 11/12 | 11 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 3:04 PM | 3723 | Jersey Avenue | 13/14 or 11/12 | 12 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 3:00 PM | 3943 | Trenton | 11/12 | 11 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 2:58 PM | 6641 | Dover | 3/4 or 1/2 | 1 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 2:48 PM | 3595 | South Amboy | 11/12 or 13/14 | 12 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 2:47 PM | 6341 | Summit | 3/4 or 1/2 | 4 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 2:30 PM | 3721 | Jersey Avenue | 13/14 | 14 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 2:16 PM | 6253 | MSU | 9/10 | 3 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 2:15 PM | 3255 | Long Branch | 11/12 | 12 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 2:10 PM | 3857 | Trenton | 3/4 or 1/2 | 1 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 2:09 PM | 3855 | Trenton | 13/14 or 1/2 | 14 | Alert-grade | ✓ |
| 10/1, 2:04 PM | 3855 | Trenton | 13/14 | 14 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 1:59 PM | 6639 | Dover | 3/4 or 1/2 | 4 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 1:54 PM | 6339 | Summit | 1/2 or 3/4 | 2 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 1:46 PM | 3509 | South Amboy | 11/12 | 3 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 1:41 PM | 3753 | Jersey Avenue | 1/2 or 3/4 | 1 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 1:21 PM | 3937 | Trenton | 3/4 | 10 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 1:08 PM | 6251 | MSU | 7/8 or 9/10 | 9 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 1:05 PM | 3251 | Long Branch-BH | 3/4 or 1/2 | 14 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 12:46 PM | 5179 | High Bridge | 7/8 | 2 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 12:35 PM | 6635 | Dover | 1/2 or 3/4 | 1 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 12:29 PM | 3719 | Jersey Avenue | 1/2 | 13 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 12:13 PM | 3849 | Trenton | 3/4 or 1/2 | 4 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 11:54 AM | 6631 | Dover | 3/4 | 1 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 11:48 AM | 3247 | Long Branch | 1/2 or 3/4 | 2 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 11:41 AM | 5127 | Raritan | 3/4 or 1/2 | 10 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 11:38 AM | 3847 | Trenton | 1/2 or 3/4 | 11 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 11:31 AM | 6245 | MSU | 3/4 or 1/2 | 8 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 11:24 AM | 3845 | Trenton | 7/8 or 9/10 | 1 | Shadow | ✗ |
| 10/1, 11:12 AM | 6627 | Dover | 3/4 or 1/2 | 4 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 10:58 AM | 5175 | High Bridge | 1/2 or 3/4 | 3 | Shadow | ✓ |
| 10/1, 10:47 AM | 3243 | Long Branch | 1/2 or 3/4 | 2 | Shadow | ✓ |
Tier A names a single track. Tier B names one two-track platform (e.g. 11/12). Tier C names two platforms ("11/12 or 13/14"); "Tier C narrowed" is a Tier C case where live board and inbound-train data picked one of the two; "Tier B widened" names a second platform when history shows a real runner-up. Below-tier guesses are never sent.